Information Asymmetry: The Real Edge

The Efficient Market Hypothesis is a Lie

Academics say you can't beat the market because all information is priced in. They are wrong. Information eventually gets priced in. The money is made in the gap between "Info Revealed" and "Market Reacts."

Sources of Asymmetry

Where do you find edges?

• Niche Expertise: Are you a lawyer? You likely understand the nuances of a Supreme Court case better than a 22-year-old crypto trader. Bet on court cases.
• Local Knowledge: Do you live in a swing state? What do the yard signs say? That's data.
• Technical Skills: Can you code? Scrape data that others are manually refreshing.

The "One Owl" Advantage

Tracking wallets is a form of borrowed asymmetry. You don't know what the whale knows, but you know that they know it. If a wallet with a 90% win rate buys $50k of "Yes," that is information. One Owl lets you arbitrage their asymmetry for yourself.