The Future of Forecasting: From Niche to Nation-State

Phase 1: The Casino (We Are Here)

Right now, it's mostly elections, crypto prices, and sports. It's fun. It's volatile. It's the "Wild West."

Phase 2: Corporate Governance (The "Futarchy")

Imagine a CEO asking, "Should we fire the VP of Sales?"

Instead of a boardroom meeting, they open a market: "Will stock price be higher in 6 months if VP is fired?" Employees trade on it. The market decides. This is "Futarchy"—governance by values, administration by prediction markets. Google and Intel are already experimenting with internal markets.

Phase 3: Insurance 2.0

Prediction markets allow you to hedge anything. "Will my flight be delayed?" "Will a hurricane hit Florida?"

Eventually, these markets become instant, permissionless insurance. Farmers in Kenya can hedge against drought without a broker. Homeowners can hedge against property value drops. The future isn't just betting on outcomes; it's buying protection against them.